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Weakening Consumption

Recently, the INDEC has just published the results of surveys carried out to shopping centres (malls) and supermarkets for the month of March. According to the survey of supermarkets, actual March sales grew 8.4% measured with seasonality, compared to the same month of 2008. This calculation, however, used as support for their elaboration questioned price index to the consumer that such entity produces. If you deflated the series through the price index elaborated by abeceb.com, the result is diametrically opposed, and so sales presented a fall of 2.7% in interannual terms. This retraction is the consecutive second so far in 2009, and doubles the low recorded in February, from 1.3 per cent. On the other hand, it is interesting to observe sales on seasonally-adjusted way and compare the results of one month with the previous month. In this case, the INDEC recognizes a 0.4% fall in sales from March to February, which adds to the fall of 0.3% of sales, in February with respect to January. In the case of the shopping malls, the INDEC recognizes first interannual drop of 9.5% in sales in March, and one of 4.1% compared to February 2009.

Adjusted data of abeceb.com, using a price index itself to remove the effects of inflation, indicate that the fall in sales is 14.4% in interannual form, which constitutes the fourth consecutive decline since December 2008. This latter figure coincides with the fall in retail sales published by CAME, and that amounts to 14.8% year on year. According to the survey of this institution, among the items that would have presented major falls are footwear (- 23%), electrical appliances (- 15%), and clothing (- 22%). Source: abeceb.com original author and source of the article.


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